About 234,000 Pennsylvanians Have Lost SNAP Since the Federal Changes, and the State Could Owe Roughly 10% of Benefit Costs Starting Oct. 1, 2027

Across Pennsylvania, roughly one in eight people who counted on a monthly SNAP deposit in the summer of 2025 no longer gets one. About 234,000 Pennsylvanians had lost benefits since the federal changes, Community Legal Services in Philadelphia told Billy Penn in early October, and the newest state data tracked by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities put the drop at 239,179 through September, about 12% of the caseload.

A second bill is coming due for the state itself. Because Pennsylvania’s error rate sits above the new federal line, it is on track to pay about a tenth of SNAP benefit costs starting Oct. 1, 2027, something Harrisburg has never had to budget for.

239,179 fewer Pennsylvanians on the rolls

CBPP’s SNAP tracker, updated Oct. 23, compares each state’s caseload in July 2025, when the federal budget law was signed, with the most recent month of state data. For Pennsylvania, that latest month is September 2026, and the decline is 239,179 people, or 12%.

Children make up a large share of that number. The same tracker counts 68,498 fewer Pennsylvania children receiving SNAP, a 10% decline. Nationally, CBPP says participation has fallen by 5.5 million people since the law passed, to 36.1 million, using USDA’s most recent month.

The 234,000 figure from Community Legal Services came from the count available at the start of October. The CBPP number, built on September state data, runs slightly higher because it uses a later month of data.

The Pennsylvania Department of Human Services still describes SNAP as a program reaching more than 1.7 million Pennsylvanians. In its Sept. 29 release on the annual benefit adjustment, DHS Secretary Dr. Val Arkoosh called SNAP “the nation’s most important anti-hunger program.”

Why people are falling off

The biggest driver is the expanded work rule. According to DHS, adults ages 18 to 64 who have no dependent child under 14 and are considered able to work must now meet work requirements or risk losing eligibility, unless an exemption applies. DHS says those expanded requirements took effect Nov. 1, 2025, and that veterans and former foster youth ages 18 to 24 no longer get an automatic exemption based on that status.

Paperwork is the other pressure point. DHS warns that households that don’t send proof of shelter and utility costs will have benefits calculated without those deductions, which can shrink the monthly amount even when a case stays open. Missing documents alone, the department says, won’t close a case.

For households still enrolled, the October adjustment was modest. DHS says most recipients saw an average increase of $18 a month, the maximum for a family of four rose to $1,023, and the minimum benefit went from $24 to $25. Readers following the national side of that change can see how USDA raised the family-of-four maximum to $1,023.

The state’s own 10% bill starting in October 2027

Until now, Washington has paid 100% of SNAP benefits. Under the 2025 law, states with payment error rates of roughly 6% or higher will start covering part of the cost of benefits in fiscal year 2028, which begins Oct. 1, 2027.

USDA’s fiscal 2025 numbers put Pennsylvania’s payment error rate at 9.21%, according to the Central Pennsylvania Food Bank, which tracks the policy for its network. That rate lands the state in the 10% tier.

CBPP’s state-by-state estimate puts Pennsylvania’s share at about $410 million in fiscal 2028. The Central Pennsylvania Food Bank’s own projection, based on May 2026 participation, is about $381 million. CBPP estimates that all states together could owe roughly $9 billion.

The tiers matter. CBPP groups states with error rates of roughly 6% to 7.5% at a 5% share, roughly 8% to 10% at 10%, and about 10.8% and above at 15%. A lower error rate in fiscal 2026 data could still move Pennsylvania down a tier, because states may use either year’s rate.

Administrative costs already shifted Oct. 1

The first part of the cost shift is already in place. Starting Oct. 1, 2026, states pay 75% of the cost of running SNAP, up from an even split with Washington, according to the Central Pennsylvania Food Bank’s summary of the law.

That covers caseworkers, eligibility systems and county assistance offices, the same offices that handle the paperwork and work-rule checks now driving people off the rolls.

Billy Penn reported that Philadelphia’s own error rate is 9.2% and quoted Christina Roberto, director of the Center for Food and Nutrition Policy at the University of Pennsylvania, explaining the state cost shift. George Matysik, executive director of the Share Food Program, described rising pantry demand in the city.

What households can check now

Anyone who received a notice about work requirements can ask their county assistance office whether an exemption applies, such as caring for a child under 14 or a medical limitation. DHS says households should keep sending proof of rent and utility costs so those deductions stay in the benefit calculation.

A separate deadline is also approaching for every SNAP household in the country. The site has laid out what happens to SNAP benefits if Congress misses the Dec. 11 funding deadline.

For the state budget, the open question is the fiscal 2026 error rate. Under CBPP’s tier ranges, a rate near 7.5% or lower would mean a 5% share; if it stays near 9%, the 10% share and CBPP’s estimate of about $410 million a year would apply from Oct. 1, 2027.

Food banks across the state are already planning around that date. The Central Pennsylvania Food Bank has urged supporters to contact lawmakers about the cost shift, while CBPP’s tracker will keep updating the caseload count as new state data arrives each month.

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This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.

Image: Kumar Appaiah – CC BY-SA 2.0/Wikimedia Commons