Medicare Advantage Premiums Are Projected to Fall to $12.00 a Month in 2027 as Open Enrollment Runs Through Dec. 7

Twelve dollars a month is the average Medicare Advantage premium the federal government expects enrollees to pay in 2027, down from $14.37 this year. That projection, released by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services on Sept. 28, lands as Medicare’s annual open enrollment period runs from Oct. 15 through Dec. 7.

For the roughly 34 million people CMS expects in Medicare Advantage next year, those seven weeks are the main chance to switch plans, drop one or join one for 2027 coverage.

What CMS projected for 2027 premiums

According to the CMS announcement, the weighted average monthly Medicare Advantage premium is projected to fall from $14.37 in 2026 to $12.00 in 2027, a 16.5 percent decline. The agency expects 2027 enrollment of about 34 million people, or about 47.4 percent of everyone in Medicare, and said it expects actual enrollment to come in higher than plans projected.

The number of plans barely moves. CMS counts 5,553 Medicare Advantage plans nationally in 2026 and about 5,532 for 2027. The agency said more than 99 percent of beneficiaries will have access to at least one Medicare Advantage plan, 97 percent will have 10 or more, and about 8 in 10 current enrollees can stay in their plan at the same or a lower premium.

Drug coverage is split into two stories. For stand-alone prescription drug plans, the average monthly premium is projected to rise from $35.09 to $36, an increase of less than $1. For Medicare Advantage plans that include drug coverage, CMS projects the average Part D portion of the premium, after plan rebates, will drop from $11.32 to $7.

CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz said the agency “is fighting to keep high-quality care options affordable and accessible for the millions of beneficiaries” who rely on Medicare Advantage and Part D plans. Trade publication AJMC reported the same 16.5 percent projected drop when the figures came out, along with a second line from Oz: “CMS is keeping premiums stable while ensuring that 97% of Medicare beneficiaries have access to 10 or more MA plans.” AJMC also reported that CMS expects hearing, dental and vision coverage in Medicare Advantage plans to remain stable, and that KFF’s Juliette Cubanski expects drug cost pressures, including growing use of GLP-1 drugs and other specialty medicines, to continue.

One point is easy to miss. The Medicare Advantage premium is charged on top of the Part B premium, not instead of it. Part B is $202.90 a month in 2026, according to the CMS notice in the Federal Register, and the 2027 figure has not been announced yet. A $12 plan premium is the extra cost beyond that.

Why the national average hides big state differences

A national average blends very different local markets. The CMS state-by-state landscape fact sheets for 2027 show how wide the spread runs.

In Florida, the average monthly Medicare Advantage premium is $2.13 for 2027, up from $1.83, and every beneficiary in the state will have access to a plan with no premium. The state’s plan count drops from 611 to 560. In California, the average is $14.12, up from $13.77, with 394 plans, down from 402, and 99.64 percent of people having access to a zero-premium plan.

Both states’ averages rose slightly even as the national figure fell. That is a reminder that the 16.5 percent decline describes the country as a whole, not any one enrollee’s bill. The same CMS sheets show that stand-alone drug plan shoppers in both states have options starting at $5.30 a month. In Florida, 52.69 percent of stand-alone drug plan enrollees can pick a plan cheaper than what they paid in 2026, and 23.50 percent get Extra Help with costs. In California, every stand-alone enrollee has access to a cheaper plan than this year’s, and 32.27 percent get Extra Help.

Premiums are also only one cost. KFF’s analysis of 2026 plans found that 75 percent of people in Medicare Advantage plans with drug coverage pay no premium beyond Part B, but the average in-network out-of-pocket limit was $5,421, and $6,592 for PPOs. KFF also found that 99 percent of enrollees are in plans that require prior authorization for some services. Those limits and rules change plan to plan and year to year, so a low premium can come with higher costs when care is needed.

Using the window before Dec. 7

CMS points beneficiaries to the Medicare Plan Finder at Medicare.gov, which compares plans side by side using the prescription drugs a person takes, and to 1-800-MEDICARE for help by phone, according to the agency’s open enrollment campaign materials.

For anyone comparing plans, the checks that tend to matter most are whether doctors and pharmacies are in network, whether each prescription is covered and at what cost, and how the out-of-pocket limit compares with this year’s plan.

The CMS finding that about 8 in 10 Medicare Advantage enrollees can keep their current plan at the same or a lower premium also means the rest cannot count on that. For those enrollees, the plan comparison is where a premium increase, or a plan that is no longer offered, would show up.

The choice between Medicare Advantage and Original Medicare carries other consequences, too. When CMS paid a one-time $90 Part B rebate this October, its rebate FAQ made Medicare Advantage enrollees ineligible, limiting the money to people in Original Medicare Part B who met its other conditions. Readers weighing coverage this fall may also want to know what happens to Medicare coverage if federal funding lapses.

The campaign materials say it plainly: Medicare Open Enrollment ends Dec. 7.

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This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.

Image: “Doctor office waiting room” by Kurt Kaiser, CC0 1.0, via Wikimedia Commons