Medicare Trustees Project the 2027 Part B Premium at $209.50 a Month, With the Official Figure Still to Come From CMS

Under the Medicare trustees’ latest projections, the standard Part B premium would climb to $209.50 a month in 2027, up $6.60 from the $202.90 most enrollees pay now. That figure is an estimate, not a bill. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, which sets the actual premium each fall, has not yet announced the 2027 amount.

For the millions of retirees whose premium is taken out of their Social Security payment, the final number decides how much of next year’s 3.6 percent cost-of-living increase actually reaches their bank account.

The trustees’ estimate and what it covers

The projection comes from the Medicare Board of Trustees’ annual report. The 2026 report, transmitted to Congress on June 9, lays out the program’s finances. Among its headline findings, the trustees projected that Medicare’s Hospital Insurance trust fund will be depleted in the second quarter of 2033, one quarter earlier than last year’s report, at which point incoming revenue would cover 89 percent of scheduled benefits.

Part B is financed differently. The report says the Part B and Part D accounts stay in balance because premiums and general revenue transfers are reset every year to cover expected costs. That annual reset is exactly why the premium changes each January.

AARP reported on Oct. 5 that the trustees’ $209.50 estimate would be a 3.25 percent increase, and that the Part B deductible is projected to rise from $283 in 2026 to $292 in 2027. AARP said CMS will announce the actual premium and deductible “later this fall.”

The trustees also looked further out. The Military Officers Association of America, summarizing the report in June, listed projected standard premiums of $224.50 in 2028, $238.50 in 2029, $255.50 in 2030, $272.10 in 2031, $290.20 in 2032, $313.65 in 2033 and $338.50 in 2034, reaching $360.60 by 2035. Those later figures are long-range estimates that can move a great deal from one report to the next.

How the 2026 premium was set a year ago

Last year’s announcement shows how the process works. CMS filed its notice of the 2026 Part B rates on Nov. 14, 2025, and the Federal Register published it on Nov. 19, 2025. It set the standard premium at $202.90, an increase of $17.90 from $185.00 in 2025, and the deductible at $283.

The same notice set the income-related surcharges, known as IRMAA, that higher-income enrollees pay. For 2026, an individual with modified adjusted gross income up to $109,000, or a couple filing jointly up to $218,000, pays the standard premium. Above that, total monthly premiums step up in five tiers: $284.10 for individual income of $109,001 to $137,000, $405.80 up to $171,000, $527.50 up to $205,000, $649.20 up to just under $500,000, and $689.90 at $500,000 or more. The joint-filer brackets are roughly double, topping out at $750,000. AARP reported that about 5.1 million beneficiaries paid IRMAA in 2025.

The 2026 increase was steep. AARP put it at 9.7 percent. By comparison, the trustees’ estimate for 2027 is a much smaller step.

Set against the 3.6% COLA

The Social Security Administration announced on Oct. 14 that benefits will rise 3.6 percent in 2027, and its announcement put the average increase for retirement benefits at about $75 a month. The agency’s 2027 fact sheet estimates the average retired worker’s monthly benefit at $2,170 after the raise, up from $2,095.

If CMS lands on the trustees’ $209.50, the $6.60 premium increase would take back a small slice of that average $75 raise, leaving roughly $68 of it for a retiree who pays the standard premium out of Social Security. Over 12 months, a $6.60 monthly increase comes to $79.20.

People in Medicare Advantage still pay the Part B premium, too. Their plan premium is an extra charge on top of it, and CMS has projected that the average Medicare Advantage premium will fall from $14.37 to $12.00 a month in 2027. For those enrollees, a higher Part B premium could eat into what they save on the plan side.

Not everyone is protected from a premium jump. AARP explained that the Social Security Act’s hold-harmless rule keeps Part B increases from shrinking some recipients’ Social Security payments below the prior year’s amount. But about 30 percent of Part B enrollees are not covered by that protection, according to AARP, including people who do not receive Social Security checks and those who pay IRMAA. That gap is how some retirees ended up with a smaller check even after the 2026 cost-of-living increase.

When the official figure arrives

CMS has not given a date for the 2027 announcement. Last year’s notice came in mid-November, and the Social Security Administration has said beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare will be able to see their 2027 benefit amount, after deductions, in their my Social Security Message Center starting in late November. Paper notices go out in December.

Until then, the $209.50 figure is the best public estimate, and it may change. Households budgeting for January can use it as a placeholder while watching for the CMS announcement, which will also bring the final deductible and the 2027 IRMAA income brackets. For workers still a few years from 65, the long-range numbers feed into a separate question, and rising coverage costs are one reason some Americans are delaying retirement over health insurance.

The premium is also separate from this month’s one-time $90 Medicare rebate. That payment, described in a CMS fact sheet, went to about 20.8 million people in Original Medicare Part B to offset part of their October premium and does not change what anyone will owe in 2027.

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This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.

Image: Shixart1985 – CC BY 2.0/Wikimedia Commons