Homes That Heat With Oil Are on Track to Spend $2,115 This Winter, 21% More Than Last Year, While Natural Gas Bills Fall to $640

Natural gas bills are forecast to fall 9% this winter while heating oil bills climb 21%, and the gap between the two is $1,475. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the average household that heats with oil to spend $2,115 from November through March. A household heating with natural gas is on track to spend $640 over the same five months.

The numbers come from the agency’s Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27, released Oct. 6, 2026 as a supplement to its Short-Term Energy Outlook. It is a forecast, not a bill, and the agency’s next update is scheduled for Nov. 10.

Oil is the fuel moving the wrong way

The EIA’s forecast puts the average heating oil price at $5.26 a gallon over the winter, up 34% from last year, with a household using about 402 gallons, down 9%. Higher price and lower use net out to the 21% increase in spending.

The agency’s monthly breakdown shows how the bill builds. It projects $360 in November, $465 in December, $509 in January, $420 in February and $361 in March. Prices are expected to start the season highest, at $5.79 a gallon in November, and ease to $4.84 by March.

The reasons are global. The EIA says worldwide distillate production fell because of reduced refining, which raised import costs and export demand, and that U.S. distillate stocks are low going into winter. It adds that warmer-than-last-year Northeast temperatures partly offset the higher price. In its main outlook, the agency forecasts Brent crude at an average of $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter.

The agency’s weekly survey shows the pressure already at the tank. The heating oil and propane update listed a U.S. average residential heating oil price of $6.19 a gallon as of Oct. 19, up $2.664 from a year earlier. Propane was $2.689, up $0.256.

Natural gas and propane households come out ahead

For homes that use natural gas, which the EIA calls the primary heating fuel for about 61 million households, the forecast is $640, down 9%. Gas prices are expected to average $13.44 per thousand cubic feet, down 9%, and consumption is flat.

Propane customers are projected to spend $1,246, down 3%, on an average price of $2.52 a gallon. Households that heat with electricity are the other group with a rising bill: $1,196, up 4%, with electricity at 18.23 cents per kilowatt-hour, up 3%.

The EIA says natural gas and electricity retail prices lag wholesale prices because of utility regulation, while heating oil and propane retail prices typically reflect wholesale changes within four to six weeks. That is why oil buyers feel a price shock faster than gas customers.

The EIA’s household counts show how unevenly these fuels are spread. About 57.9 million households heat primarily with electricity, up 1%, and about 6.4 million use propane, unchanged. Roughly 1.6 million rely on wood, down 4%, and about 3.4 million fall into an other-or-none category, up 6%. Because oil homes are a small slice of the country, the national picture of falling gas bills and flat propane bills can sit alongside a hard winter for the households that buy oil.

Regions split sharply

The national averages hide large gaps. In the Northeast, the forecast is $879 for natural gas, down 14%, and $1,687 for propane, down 15%, helped by temperatures the EIA expects to be 12% milder in heating-degree terms than last winter. Northeast electric heat is the most expensive on the list at $1,637, down 3%.

The West is the exception. Colder weather, with heating degree days 25% above last winter, pushes natural gas spending up 7% to $590 and electricity up 9% to $1,151. In the Midwest, gas spending is projected at $613, down 10%, and electricity at $1,380, up 3%. In the South, gas is $511, down 15%.

Weather is the biggest uncertainty in any heating forecast. The EIA’s base case assumes national temperatures similar to last winter, with 3,155 heating degree days from November through March, unchanged from the prior winter. It also runs side cases in which every region is 10% colder or 10% warmer than the base case, so the dollar figures for a given household can land well above or below the averages. The Midwest, for instance, is projected at 4,802 heating degree days, down 2%, and the South at 2,021, up 1%.

The agency cautions against assuming a fuel switch would save money. Housing stock, efficiency and climate exposure differ, it says, so one fuel’s average spending does not translate into savings for a household that changes fuels. It also notes that a strong El Niño pattern identified by NOAA could cause large temperature swings from its base case.

Who heats with oil, and where help is available

About 4.1 million households use heating oil as their main fuel, down 5% from last year, according to the EIA’s household counts, and the agency’s main outlook puts them at about 3% of U.S. households, mostly in the Northeast. Those households face prices more than 30% above last winter.

Federal heating aid exists for people who struggle with those costs. The Administration for Children and Families says its LIHEAP program helps with bill assistance, energy crises, weatherization and minor energy-related repairs, and it directs applicants to EnergyHelp.us or the National Energy Assistance Referral line at 1-866-674-6327. LIHEAP does not charge fees or give direct grants to individuals, the agency warns.

States run their own versions. New York raised its base benefit for oil, kerosene and propane to $990, up $90, according to Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office, and this site has covered the New York base benefit increase separately. Eligibility and amounts vary by state, income and household.

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This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.

Image: Asurnipal – CC BY-SA 4.0/Wikimedia Commons